As the world's largest gathering of watch industry participants approaches, retailers, journalists, and enthusiasts are preparing to descend on Geneva. These shows are pivotal events where brands unveil their novelties, forge relationships, and secure a significant portion of their annual sales. As we prepare to take our Members on a guided trip to three amazing shows, we look at the current state of the industry, and wonder, what should we expect from next week's flurry of announcements?

Industry Headwinds

The watch industry is currently navigating challenging waters. The extraordinary surge in interest during COVID lockdowns—when people had time to learn more about watches and, for some, disposable income to spend—has subsided. That boom drove unprecedented sales in both new and pre-owned watches and created remarkable hype around models like the Patek Philippe Nautilus and Rolex Daytona, but ended in 2022.

Since then, economic turbulence including geopolitical conflicts and high inflation has significantly altered spending habits, resulting in declining watch sales over the past 24 months. According to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, 2024 figures were disappointing, with the downward trend continuing into February 2025.

Perhaps most alarming is the precipitous 42% drop in export volumes to China since 2023—previously the industry's highest-growth market.

The Pre-Owned Market Correction

The pre-owned watch market continues to soften. Many enthusiasts prefer pre-owned timepieces for their value proposition compared to buying new, with much lower prices available for pre-owned watches for many luxury brands.

The lockdown period drove extraordinary price inflation for certain pre-owned watches, particularly from prestigious brands like Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe. Those prices have since declined sharply. Rising interest rates since 2022 have created dual pressures:

1. Dealers face higher inventory financing costs, limiting their ability to maintain extensive stock or take purchasing risks

2. Zero-percent financing deals have become scarce, reducing buyers' spending capacity

These factors disproportionately impact the pre-owned market, resulting in steeper declines compared to new watches.

New Watch Pricing Paradox

While pre-owned prices have fallen substantially amid economic uncertainty and elevated interest rates, new luxury watches exhibit a different dynamic. To counter their rising costs and maintain their luxury positioning, most Swiss brands have implemented substantial price increases over the past five years.

This hasn't gone unnoticed—many enthusiasts in The Watch Collectors' Club report difficulty justifying the current pricing of previously attainable models from their favourite brands.

Market Outlook

While predictions are challenging, our industry conversations suggest ongoing market weakness. New watch buyers remain hesitant following recent price increases, focusing on value and exercising patience with major brands to find truly compelling pieces. This might lead to greater experimentation from larger brands moving forward.

In the pre-owned space, buyers are increasingly comfortable playing the long game. This aligns with our consistent advice: take your time when purchasing pre-owned or vintage pieces, and the right watch in excellent condition will eventually emerge. With countless options available, compromise is unnecessary—especially in a soft market.

Geneva Show Expectations

The watch industry typically responds to market weakness in a predictable pattern: the largest, most financially secure brands amplify their activities and expenditures, while smaller players consolidate to ensure survival.

Next week, we anticipate announcements dominated by powerhouses like Rolex, Cartier, Hermès, and Louis Vuitton, while other brands will likely present fewer novelties or focus on a single major release. We're particularly excited about TAG Heuer's Formula 1 range relaunch (now that they sponsor the racing series) and Bremont's new Altitude collection.

We'll be attending with numerous Club members, and if you've considered experiencing these shows firsthand, you're welcome to join us next year.

Conclusion

The current market weakness creates favourable conditions for enthusiasts and prospective buyers. Negotiating leverage with dealers has increased for both new and pre-owned pieces. Patience will be rewarded with exceptional examples at attractive prices, and even the most prestigious brands are working hard to capture consumer attention.

To see impressive timepieces in person, attend one of our events or shows. For questions about market conditions or finding your dream watch, please don't hesitate to contact us.